NL economy growing faster than other countries

The Dutch economy will grow more than half as fast this year as previously thought. As a result, we have already fully recovered from the blow of the corona crisis in the third quarter, Rabobank economists think. Not 2.3 percent growth this year, but 3.8 percent. And next year not 3.5 percent growth, but 3.7 percent. That is what Rabobank's economists now assume in the Economic Quarterly Report. This means that we can leave the corona crisis behind us faster than other countries. Earlier, Rabobank thought that we would not be back to pre-corona crisis levels until the fourth quarter, but so it will be three months earlier.

Relaxations

For the additional optimism of the Rabobank economists are several reasons. For one, the government has made some far-reaching relaxations ahead of schedule. The hospitality industry, for example, is allowed to open longer and we can also sit inside cafes and restaurants again. Furthermore, we can go back into stores as usual. Another windfall is that vaccines also seem to work against mutations of the coronavirus.

Back to normal in fourth quarter

While uncertainty remains, Rabobank nevertheless believes that all lockdown measures will be scaled down in the third quarter and there will be no more restrictions in the fourth quarter. By 2022, the economy return to the rate of growth before corona broke out, economists said.

Better than Germany, France, Italy

The Netherlands compares favorably with other countries, the bank expects. The German economy will have fully recovered from corona by the end of this year, France not until the middle of next year, and for Spain, Italy and the UK it will be another year later.

More positive than CPB and DNB

Rabobank's expectations compare favorably with those of the CPB (Central Planning Bureau) and others. In its March estimate, the CPB was still counting on growth of 2.2 percent in 2021 and 3.5 percent in 2022. The European Commission in February expected growth in 2021 of 1.8 percent and of 3 percent in 2022. The Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) in April assumed growth of 2.2 percent this year and 4.2 percent next year.